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eth-summaries/semester6/iml/parts/01_regression.tex
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\subsection{Supervised Learning}
\textbf{Supervised Learning} is the task of 'learning' a function relationship, based on a given set of inputs/outputs.
Some terminology:
\begin{tabular}{ll}
$x \in \R^d$ & Inputs (Attributes/Covariates) \\
$\phi(x) \in \R^p$ & Features \\
$y \in \R$ & Outputs (Targets/Labels) \\
$D = \{ (x_i,y_i) \}_{i=1}^n$ & Training Set \\
$D'$ & Test Set \\
$f: \R^p \to \R$ & Predictor (Model) \\
$l(f(x), y)$ & Loss
\end{tabular}
\textbf{Machine Learning Pipelines} can often be classified using:
\begin{tabular}{ll}
$F$ & Function Class \\
$L(f)$ & Training Loss \\
& Optimization Method
\end{tabular}
{\small
The function class $F$ is a set of parametrized functions.
We are looking for the $f \in F$ that minimizes $L(f)$.
}
\definition \textbf{Training Loss}
$$
L(f) := \frac{1}{n}\sum_{i=1}^{n} l\bigl( f(x_i), y \bigr)
$$
\newpage
\subsection{Multiple Linear Regression}
\textbf{Multiple Linear Regression} directly uses the $x \in \R^d$. \\
Here, $F_\text{affine} = \bigl\{ f(x) = w^\top x + w_0 \big| w \in \R^d, w_0 \in \R \bigr\}$.
\remark Why are we using linear functions instead?\\
{\footnotesize\color{gray}
Any estimator $f \in F_\text{affine}$ can be rewritten as $f\bigl((x,1)\bigr) = (w,w_0)^\top\cdot(x,1)$,
thus we can augment the inpurs $x \mapsto (x,1)$ and \\
instead search in $F_\text{linear} = \{ f(x) = \hat{w}^\top x | \hat{w} \in \R^{d+1} \}$
}
\subsection{Loss Functions}
\definition \textbf{Squared Loss} $\quad l\bigl( f(x),y \bigr) := \bigl( f(x) - y \bigr)^2$\\
\subtext{Most common Loss Function, but sensitive to outliers.}
\definition \textbf{Absolute Loss} $\quad l_\text{abs}\bigl( f(x),y \bigr) := |f(x)-y|$\\
\subtext{Less sensitive to outliers, but not differentiable.}
\definition \textbf{Huber Loss}
$$
l_\text{huber}\bigl( f(x),y \bigr) := \begin{cases}
\frac{1}{2}\bigl( f(x)-y \bigr)^2 & |f(x)-y| \leq \delta \\
\delta \bigl( |f(x)-y| - \frac{1}{2}\delta \bigr) & |f(x)-y| > \delta
\end{cases}
$$
\subtext{Using parameter $\delta$, the penalization of outliers can be controlled}
\textbf{Assymetric Loss}: In some cases it is desirable to penalize overestimation harder than underestimation, or vice versa.
\definition \textbf{Quantile Loss}
$$
l_\tau\bigl( f(x),y \bigr) := \tau \max\Bigl\{ y-f(x),0 \Bigr\} + (1-\tau)\max\Bigl\{ f(x)-y, 0 \Bigr\}
$$
\subtext{Using parameter $\tau$, over/underestimation can be penalized}
\newpage
\subsection{The Normal Equation}
The normal equation is the basis for the closed form solution of linear regression. (square loss)
To find $\hat{f} := \underset{f \in F_\text{linear}}{\text{arg min}} L(f)$ we look for ideal weights $\hat{w} \in \R^d$.
$$
\hat{w} := \underset{w \in \R^d}{\text{arg min}} L(f_w) = \frac{1}{n}\sum_{i=1}^{n}\underbrace{\Bigl( y_i - w^\top x_i \Bigr)^2}_{l\bigl(f(x_i), y_i\bigr)}
$$
\subtext{A natural abuse of notation here is $L(w) := L(f_w)$.}
This can be rewritten in matrix notation:
$$
\sum_{i=1}^{n}\Bigl( y_i - w^\top x_i \Bigr)^2 = \bigl\Vert y-Xw \bigr\Vert^2
$$
\subtext{The factor $\frac{1}{n}$ is irrelevant for Optimization, it doesn't depend on $w$}
So we find a problem familiar from linear algebra:
$$
\hat{w} = \underset{w \in \R^d}{\text{arg min}} \bigl\Vert y-Xw \bigr\Vert^2
$$
The solution is a stationary point, so:
$$
\nabla_w \bigl\Vert y-Xw \bigr\Vert^2 = 2X^\top(X\hat{w}-y) \overset{!}{=} 0
$$
Which yields the \textbf{Normal Equation}.
$$
\mathbf{X}^\top\mathbf{X}\hat{w} = \mathbf{X}^\top y
$$
\theorem \textbf{Geometric Interpretation}\\
$\hat{y} = \mathbf{X}\hat{w}$ for $\hat{w}$ solving $\mathbf{X}^\top\mathbf{X}\hat{w} = \mathbf{X}^\top y$ is the orthogonal projection of $y$ onto $\text{span}(\mathbf{X})$.
\begin{center}
\includegraphics[width=0.275\textwidth]{resources/normalEquation.png}\\
\subtext{Introduction to Machine Learning (2026), p. 74}
\end{center}
\newpage
\subsection{Closed Form Solution}
\theorem \textbf{Minimum-Norm Solution}\\
$$
\hat{w} = \Bigl(\mathbf{X}^\top\mathbf{X}\Bigr)^\dagger\mathbf{X}^\top y = \mathbf{X}^\top\Bigl(\mathbf{X}^\top\mathbf{X}\Bigr)^{-1} \mathbf{X}^\top y
$$
$$
\text{for} \qquad \hat{w} = \underset{w \in \R^d}{\text{arg min}} \bigl\Vert w \bigr\Vert^2
$$
{\footnotesize
\remark The computational cost for this is $\mathcal O (nd^2+d^3)$.
}
The closed form solution depends on $\text{rank}(\mathbf{X})$.
Assuming $d \leq n$ and $\text{rank}(\mathbf{X}) = d$: $(\mathbf{X}^\top\mathbf{X})^{-1}$ exists.
$$
\hat{w} = (\mathbf{X}^\top\mathbf{X})^{-1}\mathbf{X}^\top y \qquad (\text{unique})
$$
Assuming $d > n$ or $\text{rank}(\mathbf{X}) < d$ we have $|\ker(\mathbf{X})|=\infty$ and there are infinite solutions. The pseudo-inverse provides the minimum-norm solution:
$$
\hat{w} = \Bigl(\mathbf{X}^\top\mathbf{X}\Bigr)^\dagger \mathbf{X}^\top y
$$
{\footnotesize
\remark If $\text{rank}(\mathbf{X})=d$, then $\bigl(\mathbf{X}^\top\mathbf{X}\bigr)^\dagger = \bigl(\mathbf{X}^\top\mathbf{X}\bigr)^{-1}$.
}
\subsection{Non-Linear Least Squares}
To expand Linear Regression to Non-linear functions, feature maps are used on $x$ of the form $\phi: \R^d \to \R^p$.
$$
f_w(x) = \sum_{j=1}^{p} w_j^\top \phi_j(x)
$$
This induces a function class different from $F_\text{linear}$:
$$
F_\phi = \biggl\{ f_w(x) = \sum_{j=1}^{p} w_j^\top \phi_j(x) \ \bigg|\ w \in \R^p \biggr\}
$$
But the optimization problem remains the same:\\
\subtext{$\Phi \in \R^{n \times p}$ now replaces $\mathbf{X} \in \R^{n \times d}$.}
$$
\hat{w} = \underset{w\in\R^p}{\text{arg min}} \Bigl\Vert y - \Phi w \Bigr\Vert^2
$$
\begin{center}
\includegraphics[width=0.2\textwidth]{resources/nonlinearLeastSquares.png}\\
\subtext{Introduction to Machine Learning (2026), p. 79}
\end{center}